Children are the True Career: Controversy Erupts in Turkey Over Erdogan’s ‘Three-Child’ Policy
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has triggered intense debate by labeling birth control a “betrayal” and describing the country’s declining birth rate as a “disaster.” Throughout most of his 23 years as Turkey’s dominant political figure, he has consistently urged citizens to have more children, promoting a traditional family model where fathers provide financially and mothers focus on homemaking while raising at least three children. Recently, Erdogan pushed the envelope further, asking, “Why not four or five?” as he believes a higher birth rate will enable Turkey to move toward a stronger future. However, his rhetoric is failing to match reality; Turkey’s total fertility rate has been declining for over a decade and has now dropped significantly below the 2.1 replacement level required to maintain a stable population without immigration.
Analysts point out that Erdogan’s campaign is driven not just by economic concerns, but by a conservative Islamic vision for Turkish society—a vision that leaves no room for voluntarily childless couples, LGBTQ+ partnerships, and offers limited flexibility for career-driven women. This stance was put on stark display during a live television broadcast in 2022 when Erdogan welcomed a new lawmaker, Mehmet Ali Celebi, to his party. Upon learning that Celebi had only one child because his wife was focused on her PhD and career, an unsatisfied Erdogan retorted, “Having children is the true career. We need to increase our population.”
Demographers, however, attribute the decline to rapid urbanization, shifting lifestyles, and rising higher education rates among women. They also blame Erdogan’s own economic policies, which have triggered rampant inflation and suppressed wages, making housing and childcare unaffordable for many. Cigdem Akyuz, a 41-year-old mother of two in Istanbul, shared that she abandoned plans for a third child due to soaring costs, calling Erdogan’s demands unrealistic: “He keeps saying ‘have three kids,’ but how is that possible?” While global powers like the US and South Korea face similar demographic contractions, few world leaders have made reversing the trend as deeply personal a mission as Erdogan.
According to official statistics, Turkey’s fertility rate plummeted to an all-time low of 1.48 in 2024. In response, the government declared 2025 the “Year of the Family” and launched a “Family and Population Decade” running through 2035. Maternity leave was extended from 16 to 24 weeks, paternity leave doubled to 10 days, and financial incentives—including cash payouts for newborns and interest-free marriage loans—were introduced. Yet, parents argue these incentives are a drop in the ocean; inflation has consistently remained above 30% for over four years, sometimes breaching 80%. Zahide Erte, a mother of four, noted that the government’s $110 monthly subsidy for her youngest barely covers the cost of diapers, while her husband’s minimum wage of $625 fails to cover their basic family needs.
Sociologists are skeptical that these financial perks will reverse the trend. Sociologist Sutay Yavuz from Ankara Social Sciences University notes that modern Turks are highly urbanized, educated, and career-oriented, delaying marriage and opting for a single-child household as the new social norm. Ironically, even the officials pushing Erdogan’s policy fail to practice what they preach. Mahinur Ozdemir Goktas, the Family and Social Services Minister, called the population decline an “existential struggle” but has only two children herself. Similarly, senior lawmaker Leyla Sahin Usta, a doctor-turned-politician, urges citizens to have three children for the nation’s sake, despite only having two. Meanwhile, those who followed Erdogan’s advice are feeling the squeeze. Fatma Avci, a 39-year-old mother of three, described her family’s struggle living in a cramped one-bedroom apartment, noting that they cannot even afford to host guests. When asked what advice she would give young couples today, her response was bleak: “At most, have two. Surviving right now is just too difficult.”
