On a rain-soaked afternoon in late July, as the excitement of the FIFA World Cup gradually faded, a different kind of contest took centre stage in Dhaka—one of ideas, strategy and national security. On July 21, 2026, the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) hosted a high-level roundtable at Hotel Bengal Blueberry in Gulshan-2, bringing together diplomats, academics, military officers, researchers and policy experts to examine one of the most significant emerging challenges in global security: sub-threshold warfare.
The discussion, titled “Sub-threshold Conflict: War by Other Means,” explored how states increasingly pursue strategic objectives without crossing the threshold of conventional armed conflict. Participants stressed that understanding this evolving form of competition is becoming essential for Bangladesh as geopolitical tensions continue to reshape regional and global security.
Rethinking conflict beyond the battlefield
The session was chaired by Major General ANM Muniruzzaman (Retd), President of BIPSS and Chairman of the Global Military Advisory Council on Climate Change. In his opening remarks, he argued that traditional distinctions between war and peace are becoming increasingly blurred.
According to him, cyber operations, economic coercion, disinformation campaigns and attacks targeting critical infrastructure have become effective strategic tools that allow states to pursue political and security objectives without triggering conventional military confrontation.
He described sub-threshold warfare—often associated with grey-zone conflict—as the deliberate use of unconventional methods that remain below the level likely to provoke a full-scale military response. Such tactics, he noted, exploit societal vulnerabilities while creating uncertainty over attribution and appropriate retaliation.
The retired general warned that conventional defence strategies alone are no longer sufficient. Instead, he called for a whole-of-society approach that strengthens cyber security, protects critical infrastructure, secures supply chains and enhances public resilience against misinformation and cognitive manipulation.
Understanding the changing nature of war
The keynote presentation was delivered by Professor Dr Niloy Ranjan Biswas of the Department of International Relations at the University of Dhaka. His paper, “Living Below the Line: Sub-threshold Warfare and the Erosion of Strategic Certainty,” examined how modern conflicts increasingly rely on information operations, cyber activities, economic pressure and proxy actors rather than direct military engagement.
He explained that contemporary strategic competition often unfolds in a legal and political grey zone, allowing states or state-backed actors to achieve meaningful strategic gains while avoiding the consequences associated with open warfare.
The presentation traced the evolution of sub-threshold conflict and highlighted its growing influence on international security, demonstrating how non-kinetic tools have become central to modern geopolitical competition.
Lessons from global flashpoints
Drawing on recent international developments, Professor Biswas cited the disruption of undersea fibre-optic cables and power infrastructure in the Baltic Sea as an example of how strategic damage can occur without a declared conflict. Although NATO responded by increasing maritime patrols, no direct military engagement followed and no country formally accepted responsibility, illustrating the ambiguity that characterises sub-threshold operations.
The discussion also examined other notable cases, including Crimea, cyber operations against Estonia, security challenges in the Baltic region, tensions in the South China Sea and coordinated disinformation campaigns across parts of Africa.
These examples demonstrated a recurring pattern: strategic confrontation continues, yet responsibility remains disputed and international responses are often limited. According to participants, this ambiguity makes sub-threshold warfare particularly difficult to deter.
Why Bangladesh cannot ignore the challenge
Professor Biswas argued that Bangladesh’s strategic location on the Bay of Bengal, expanding digital infrastructure and growing maritime economy could expose the country to similar forms of pressure in the future.
He emphasised that sub-threshold threats are not solely military in nature. They also create legal, operational and policy challenges, particularly in identifying perpetrators, developing credible deterrence and applying international law.
He highlighted the importance of protecting critical national assets, including submarine cable landing stations, major seaports and digital infrastructure, while strengthening institutional coordination and information resilience to reduce future vulnerabilities.
Interactive discussion focuses on national preparedness
The keynote presentation was followed by an extensive discussion in which participants examined Bangladesh’s cyber resilience, protection of strategic infrastructure and overall national preparedness.
There was broad agreement that addressing emerging security challenges will require closer collaboration among policymakers, security professionals, researchers, academic institutions and civil society.
Building resilience for the future
Delivering the closing remarks, BIPSS Senior Research Fellow Shafqat Munir said Bangladesh must adapt its national security framework to reflect the changing nature of conflict.
He argued that resilience should become the foundation of national deterrence, enabling the country to withstand attempts at destabilisation through cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns or economic disruption.
According to him, today’s battlefields extend far beyond physical borders into digital networks, financial systems and the information environment. Protecting national interests therefore requires stronger cyber capabilities, improved media literacy, enhanced infrastructure security and effective strategic diplomacy.
He also stressed the importance of reducing overdependence on any single external partner while expanding maritime, economic and regional security cooperation.
A changing security landscape
Participants concluded that failing to understand sub-threshold warfare could leave Bangladesh increasingly vulnerable to future security threats. They argued that strengthening national resilience, modernising security institutions and improving coordination across government and society should become national priorities.
The discussion reflected a broader recognition that the nature of conflict has fundamentally changed. Wars are no longer fought only across borders; they increasingly unfold through information, technology, economics and influence operations.
The growing role of strategic research
The event also highlighted the expanding role of Bangladesh’s research institutions and policy think tanks in shaping national security discussions.
Observers noted that while the country has witnessed a rise in seminars and strategic research initiatives in recent years, particularly after the political developments of 2024, such institutions should move beyond organising events and contribute meaningfully to evidence-based policymaking and long-term strategic planning.
Participants praised BIPSS for bringing complex issues such as sub-threshold warfare into mainstream policy discussions, noting that the organisation has previously hosted important dialogues on hybrid and grey-zone warfare.
Preparing for a new era of security
As Bangladesh continues to strengthen its defence capabilities and broader national security architecture, experts believe equal attention must be given to understanding the evolving nature of conflict.
The consensus emerging from the roundtable was clear: the greatest threats of the 21st century may not begin with conventional military action but through cyberspace, information networks, economic pressure and psychological influence.
For Bangladesh, recognising these realities and building resilience across institutions and society will be essential to safeguarding national stability, sovereignty and long-term security in an increasingly complex strategic environment.
